How Fast Can I Run?

As a race day approaches, runners inevitably begin to ask themselves:  "How fast can I run the race?"  This is particularly true of marathoners since if you are like most entries, you have not run a full distance while training.  (Some athletes run the full distance training, but certainly not full out, so this same discussion applies.)  So how fast should you shoot to run the race, and at any point in time, how fast could I run a particular distance?

Finish:  Boston Marathon 2005

My old standby is to use the Runner's World Time Predictor which you can find at the bottom of the post.

I actually have a spreadsheet where I can use various training runs and races (if I did any) to predict a time.  Then from these I can average them, or even calculate a range of possible outcomes and adapt depending on how I am feeling on race day.  So how does the formula work?  As quoted from the article:

"The formula was originally devised by Pete Riegel, a research engineer and marathoner, and published in Runner's World, most recently by Owen Anderson in 1997. It has been widely used since then. The formula is T2 = T1 x (D2/D1)^1.06 where T1 is the given time, D1 is the given distance, D2 is the distance to predict a time for, and T2 is the calculated time for D2."

So how fast will I run this marathon?  Somewhere around 4  hours.  I estimate this using a hard half marathon training run from a couple weeks ago.  Granted:  this run had a huge hill in it and my race will be flat, and I could have run faster.  But nonetheless, this won't be far from the truth.

Training Run Date	1/9/11
Training Run Length (Miles)	13.1
Training Run Time (hours:minutes:seconds):	1:59:37
Please estimate my time for (Miles):	26.2
Predicted time (hours:minutes:seconds):	4:09:24
Split Time	0:09:31

So, barring any drastic changes between now and the race, I'll be running a slightly slower than a four hour marathon.  If I am feeling good as the race approaches, I'll prolly try and run it a little faster, perhaps 9 minute splits and get in under 4 hours.  That depends on how easily I want to recover and that's a whole different topic.  The difference between recovering from a sub-four hour and a 4:15, let's say, research shows, is like night and day.  Again, another topic.

A final note:  this predictor can be used to predict split times for training runs as well.  So if I need to know my 10K pace at any point in time, this is one reference point for estimating that.  Also this equation does not include temperature as a factor.  That will be a topic for a separate post.

RW's Race Time Predictor

"Oh I'll Never Be Able to Run a Marathon"

I can not tell you how many times I have heard this when talking about running:  "Oh I'll Never Be Able to run the marathon."  What I always say to someone who says this is:  "You're right!"  Know why?  Most of the work to running the marathon is mental.  It takes a decision on you part to do it.  It is that mental process of deciding that most people can not get by.  26.3 miles seems absurdly long to them.  Yes you have to do the work:  put in the miles, run when you don't feel like it, don't run when you do feel like it (you really must take rest days), etc.  But on the whole, in my opinion, most of the work is mental.

As the Buddhists say ... as goes the thought ... so goes the intention.  As goes the intention, so goes the word.  As goes the word, so goes the action.  Or something like that.  If you want to run the marathon, decide, tell someone, write it down, and then take action.

So the marathon, once you do decide, is like eating an elephant:  one bite at a time.   The traditional approach is a 16 week training schedule, where your long runs occur on the weekend every two weeks.  These begin at about half marathon distance and get progressively longer up through 20 miles.  "20 miles!" you say.  Yep.  And it's not that hard.  The key to running long is learning to run aerobically, which means running slowly.  The aerobic running process is 10 times more efficient than the anaerobic running process.  One of the key skills is having the discipline to run slowly for your long run.  You can run fast for the last 10-20% of the distance, but the key is to run slow to make sure you finish the run.

So you want to run the marathon?  Decide.  And then run progressively longer distances, slowly.

To Run Faster: Try Some Striides

Hey Rational Runner want to run faster? Try some strides.  For those of you who do not know: strides are a secret of professional runners, They are a sort of mini speed work out you do usually after your run.  Here's how.

 

When you are done on an easy or medium day, let your heart settle. Then run the length of a foo...tball field (be great to do them *on* a football field) working your speed up to 85% of your max for the middle third of the field, then ease it down for the last third. If you are training for the marathon walk back, or for the half marathon or 10K jog back slowly down the field. Get your heart back down. Then do it again.

 

In the HR Monitor diagram (clicking on the image makes it larger) I worked ten easy strides into a 6 mile slow run. Can you see them? I ran 30 seconds doing the stride, then a one minute recovery jog, and then repeat 10 times. Then I finished the run. But ideally, do them when you are done your run! Don't do so many that it feels like a hard day! Do 10 Max.

 

 

So you Rational Runner: work in some strides like I do and learn to run faster like the pros!